The premier league is back and I, for one, am more excited than a badger at the start of mating season. Summer distractions are just that. Wimbledon, the Ashes, royal babies. Great, but where is Luis Suarez going? This is what the Great British public really wants to know. Some things matter.
I’m like a coiled spring at this time of year. All torque and potential energy; waiting for those sun-kissed opening games. Soon the clouds will roll in but, for now, glistening green pitches will play host to new names, new kits and fresh hopes. Bid your loved ones farewell until next May and settle in.
Football fans display an uncanny ability to overlook the obvious at this time of year in favour of a distinctly autumnal optimism. Too Good has had its dreams of a brighter future dashed too many times before to be drawn in by this false hope. Some things remain ever present and the sooner into the 2013-2014 season we recognise that Manchester United will win the bloody league again, the sooner we can make peace with our lot.
I’ve canvassed the opinion of several friends who are knowledgeable about football, as well as one or two Liverpool fans, on who they think will take home the spoils this year. Everyone seems to think it will be either Chelsea or Manchester City. The experts conclude similarly – not a single member of the Sky Sports panel plumped for the team from Old Trafford on their Season’s Preview show. Manchester United seem to carry something of a “Germany in major tournaments” feel to them. We turn up every single time doing our absolute best to rationalise why they won’t win the thing, which of course they then go on and do. Sometimes the collective footballing consciousness needs to be shaken by the lapels.
Why it won’t be City…
Appropriately for a team hoping for a Second Coming of the premiership title, Manchester City have signed a player called Jesus. Navas has almost as many tricks up his sleeve as his Nazareth counterpart. But, like Christ himself, Navas also has an Achilles’ Heel. Christ’s shortcoming was an inability to fend off betrayal within the ranks of his disciples. Navas’ is his inability to fend off a wobbly lip when he leaves his hometown of Los Palacios. One hopes that grizzled premiership defenders don’t decide the best way to test the homesick Sevillan’s resolve is a succession of “welcome to the Premiership” tackles.
Pellegrini did his business early in the summer. Once Navas was prised from his mother’s apron strings, Fernandinho, Stefan Jovetic and Alvaro Negredo quickly followed to the Etihad. A lot of talent has arrived along with the new manager. Winning teams typically grow organically, though, rather than be thrown together. And it’s uncertain what sort of formation will accommodate these players as well as the pre-existing high flyers. With the exception of Navas, each, it could be argued, has a comparative or better player already in situ at the club (Fernandinho < Toure, Jovetic < Tevez (who will be a massive loss for City on the pitch), Negredo < Aguerro). It’s not therefore especially clear how City have improved (other than in depth), despite having quality come through the door. In any case, City fans better hope it gels quickly. Title races can’t be won before Christmas, but they can certainly be lost.
Why it won’t be Chelsea…
Chelsea have strengthened primarily in the dugout. The Mourinho Effect is certainly not a chimera, but nor does it tend to work without a hefty war-chest being put to good use. As Jose himself once opined, in order to buy the best eggs, you need to shop in Waitrose. While Abramovic’s munificence has surely been guaranteed to Mourinho, so far the cash register has barely rung. £18m on Andre Schurrle may prove to be a good spend but it wasn’t the focal striker that Chelsea need. Schurrle operates mainly from the wing or behind another striker. What Chelsea require is a number 9 that will lead the attack. Any of Falcao, Cavani, Lewandowski or Higuaín (or even Roberto Soldado, had an astute Daniel Levy not been on hand to whisk him off to the Lane) would have fitted the bill. As it is, all of the above have signed elsewhere or re-committed to their current paymasters. If Mourinho honestly thinks Fernando Torres can do the job after three years now in the wilderness, then he’s exhibiting a blind faith that would make Eileen Drewery blush.
Of course, this position all changes if a certain box-shaped Scouser heads down to London. Wayne Rooney is no stranger to a transplant and, if he were to bed down quickly and effectively at Stamford Bridge, the complexion of Chelsea’s title challenge would change completely.
Which leaves us with…
Al Pacino’s character in Scarface was keen to point out the necessity of a villain of the piece (‘You need people like me so you can point your fingers and say, “That’s the bad guy”.’). The redemptive quality of the film arrives when seeing the cocaine-fuelled Montana shot to pieces by a team of assassins. Unfortunately, football isn’t a motion picture and the bad guys rarely get their comeuppance. The premier league’s Tony Montana, Manchester United, seem to go home with the spoils year after year. Yet, mysteriously, pundits and fans alike go into overdrive each pre-season trying to contrive reasons as to why it won’t be Manchester United’s year.
To recall, Manchester United won the league by eleven points last season. By the end of March, they didn’t even need their foot on the pedal. Putting this into perspective, no team has ever won the premier league by a wider margin and not retained it the following year[1]. In any case, United nab the title pretty much every year. The red devils have won the premiership on 13 out of 21 occasions, comfortably the highest win percentage (62%) in any of the big European leagues over the same period[2]. You would be hard-pressed to find a dispassionate statistician conclude anything other than a Manchester United success being the most likely outcome.
United have the best striker in the Premiership who is in the form of his life. They have a supply line to him that is never choked and, at the time of writing, they still have by far the best current English footballer.
Although United haven’t had a decent central midfield for over half a decade now, it doesn’t seem to bother them. There’s no reason to assume it will suddenly now start to. Their backline is looking a bit creaky, but then it did last year and United are unlikely to suffer as badly with injuries again. Vidic has returned and will likely manage more than 19 games this season. While Rio Ferdinand’s back is more and more resembling a game of Russian Roulette with intervertebral discs these days, there is the blossoming Phil Jones and the reliable Jonny Evans both very capable of picking up the slack. Rafael is also a fantastic (and wildly underrated) player.
People want to exclaim Alex Ferguson’s retirement as the death knell to United’s dominance. This may prove to be the case but I can’t see the players forgetting what he taught them overnight. There might be a certain atrophy over time but I don’t think Ferguson re-invented the wheel each time he went into the dressing room. He was responsible for putting together great teams at Old Trafford and he’s left one there now.
Things change, sure. But less so than is often realised. You’ll get taxed this year. Christmas will be a bit underwhelming. People will cry on reality television and it’s going to rain on the bank holiday. Manchester United, I’m afraid, will most likely win the league.
[1] Chelsea won the 2004-2005 title by 12 points and won again the following year with 8 points to spare. United won the league in 1999-2000 by a colossal 18 points and won the next year by a comparatively modest 10 points. In short, not only did both teams defend their league titles, they did so handsomely.
[2] Over the same period of time (21 seasons), Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga 11 times, Barcelona have won La Liga 10 times, Juventus have won Serie A seven times and Lyon have won Ligue 1 seven times.
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One more sleep, fellas.
Too Good for the English Game 